Always beware of headlines with the word ‘could’ in them, and look for evidence of the dire event weakly predicted – often there is little evidence to back it up. Which food is going to be short and what is the evidence?
This isn’t a great piece in the Guardian but, I’m afraid to say, Guardian journalists are not at home with farming, and some Guardian readers, perhaps including Makerfield Andy, aren’t all that clued up either. I wonder what Angela Eagle, in Defra, thinks. The focus on home production is somewhat misplaced as the food markets are global. We should be concerned about the impacts of climate change on our farmers’ productivity, but also about that of southern Europe, the Middle East and places like Ukraine. And the focus on cereal production in the article (do read it) misses out livestock production, vegetables and more.
The farming industry always paints itself as the victim, even in cases where it shares the role of villain. Farming is a big source of greenhouse gases: 11% globally and 12% in UK. UK agriculture has not reduced its emissions quickly enough and expects to get taxpayer handouts to do anything (see quotes from NFU and CLA below).
There is no food mentioned in this article which is predicted to be in short supply. The focus is on wheat and barley and almost all of that (especially wheat) goes to feed animals (which might be food for some, but vegans should opt out of paying for support for animal-based diets).
NFU President Tom Bradshaw says “Let’s draw a line in the sand and make sure we prioritise domestic food production to deliver growth across the UK.”. That gets the prize for most vested comment from a vested interest group this week. Does it have anything to do with climate change? Does it have any mention of sustainable land use? Is it to grab the attention of the current government?
Bradshaw wasn’t to know that the Guardian would use an image of a massive combine, harvesting a wheat crop in a landscape stripped of nature – but it is a useful reminder.
The Guardian writes ‘Farming is becoming unprofitable as the government removes the EU-derived subsidies that once kept the industry afloat and the climate crisis causes extreme weather that can wipe out any profits from crops. A recent report found a third of British farmers were making a loss or only breaking even.‘ when it must have meant that farming has long been unprofitable but has been subsidised by taxpayer hand-outs which are disappearing now we have left the EU. Farmers were cushioned from being efficient farmers, and from making business decisions to adapt to the inevitability of climate change, by a system of subsidies that came from the taxes of non-farmers. You notice that the NFU did not oppose Brexit – maybe they should have thought harder about it.
Gavin Lane, the president of the Country, Land and Business Association said: “Farmers are telling us this is the worst harvest in years [they do that every few years]. A sodden winter followed by drought has left wheat at half its usual height [we don’t eat the stalks!] and some [what proportion? not much sign round here in droughty Northants, so I’m assuming very few] crops not worth harvesting.
This is the third drought in five years. What was once extraordinary is becoming part of farming in Britain, and government [what about farming? what must farming do to protect itself before asking for handouts] must start planning for it [agree there, the recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change would be a good place to start]. We know that proper government investment in resilient farming systems, from reservoirs to wildfire prevention, could help farmers cope with these new extremes [or we could treat farms as businesses and they could fund business critical needs themselves].
Farmers have shown again and again that they can adapt and deliver solutions [they have?], but resilience has limits [so has the public purse which is derived from non-farmers’ taxes]. If we want them to keep feeding the country [how much food is home grown? I think it is c60%], they need proper support [in return for measurable benefits?]. Otherwise, this harvest could be their last.” On the last point, we should see what happens without proper support – an experiment. What proportion of current farmland becomes unfarmed as a result? Not, how many farmers cash in their assets (if owners) and retire, but how much the national yield is reduced.
The AHDB says, much more moderately ‘Cereal yields have generally been below the 10-year average so far, with some farms experiencing significant reductions [so presumably lots of farms at worst facing not very significant reductions]. Following successive years of difficult weather and rising costs, the financial pressures are becoming increasingly acute for those businesses hardest hit [but no suggestion as to how many are hardest hit].’. Cereal yields are below the 10-year average in about half the years – that’s what averages are. We never hear from the NFU that cereal yields are above the 10-year average unless it is to ignore that fact and complain that cereal prices are below the 10-year average. It’s a market – a global market – and we must work hard to protect our access to it.
Read the article, no-one is predicting a disaster, it’s too early to say, but the NFU gets its ask in early. They are after your money, the NHS’s money, the Defence budget’s money, your taxes. It’s always a bit like this in August.
Climate change is very likely to affect agricultural production – and adversely. We must adapt our farming – crops grown, how they are grown, where they are grown to the new climate reality. some have been saying this for at least two decades with little support from the farming industry.
According to a big firm of land agents, the value (real value) of English farmland (the orange line) is higher than at almost any time in the last 125 years in real terms. Mark Twain could have told you that. I imagine that the recent drop is because of the repatriation of funding to The Treasury from agricultural subsidies from the taxpayer post-Brexit. If land comes with an annual hand-out then it is worth more than when the hand-outs are reduced.
By the way, why, looking at that graph, do you think that farmers were so incensed that their low rates of inheritance tax were scheduled to go up a bit? Go on, have a guess.
And let’s just look at the price farmers get for their crops. First, wheat prices over almost all of my life:
And here is another version, from AHDB, just to reassure the reader and myself that wheat and barley prices are higher for the farmer, by about 10%, this year than this time last year. It’s a market and if yields turn out to be low, globally, then prices will be higher still, globally. Sometimes UK cereal farmers have good years of productivity when the rest of the world has a slump – and gain accordingly. Other years, we have low yields and the rest of the world has great yields. One has to take the rough with the smooth on yields and prices – that’s the market for you. I’m not a great fan of the market but it’s difficult to avoid them if you are selling a global commodity.
Of course, if you are a livestock farmer buying wheat, your prices will go up (so let’s hope you have some left in the barn from last year) but your increased costs have gone to a fellow farmer, a cereal farmer, who has been bemoaning his plight to the Guardian.
Real life is too complicated for Guardian headlines it seems. Maybe I’ve got this all wrong, but the original Guardian article is simply a one-sided moan from an enormously powerful industry for more support from the taxpayer. Which side is the Guardian on? Maybe no side – so where are the alternative voices in this article? And where are the string of articles that look at farm payments from the taxpayer’s point of view, the source of the money, rather than from the recipients’ point of view?
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‘Twas ever thus, Mark.
I spent a career involved in farming or something perhaps better described as the regulation of farming. Over that 35 years there was never a time when farming interests were not predicting collapse, penury, shortages or unfair competition. Sometimes it was all four at the same time.
There have been tough times and perhaps the current drought is one of the worst (I’m inclined to think the depths of the BSE and FMD crises were worse), but farmers and farming are nothing if not resilient and capable. However, that’s not the impress they like to give. Constant whingeing, endless calls for financial support and creeping protectionism do not endear themselves to the public.
Instead, what about a coming together of farming leaders to examine how farming can mitigate the impacts of climate change? Plans to reduce water usage, adopting crops which cope with heat and drought, news crop, new diets, a reduction in the numbers of grazing animals, etc. Look ahead, cope with the new reality and adopt a position of leadership and influence.
I didn’t learn anything new about farming when I started living and working on a farm I just had suspicions confirmed. Foxes get into hen coops and kill the hens, because the coops weren’t built properly in the first place, old doors nailed together aren’t any cop you know farmer Giles. The average farmer knows as much about wildlife as the average postman, average welder or average civil servant – I suspect they care about conservation less though, they certainly don’t care more. Farmers aren’t skint – the one I worked for didn’t want the missus going back to college so invested in a nursery business as a distraction to keep her at home – you know as you do. Later dealings with the ‘poor’ crofters of Lewis means I will NEVER EVER accept any comment from ANY farmer about their struggles unless they present me with their bank statements and full list of assets. Fair enough?
As for keeping us fed, if farmers are worried about the nation’s food security maybe they’d like to stop selling hundreds of thousands of tons of cereal to those artificially raising pheasant and red legged partridge. They will be dumped in the countryside in their tens of millions to be gobbled up by foxes, run over and even if shot still end up dumped in plastic bags in laybys, buried or incinerated because people can’t be bothered to pluck them.
And finally if the public wish to express their appreciation for those whose unstinting hard work produces our food maybe they should thank those who actually do most of it (rather than profiting most from it) – farm labourers – they don’t get shiny new range rovers for their efforts or much thanks least of all from farmers who I suppose are too busy playing the victim. I get the distinct impression decent farmers are somewhat outcast in their own community.
While I agree with you that the Guardian article is basically rubbish, nothing new in that, and that the average UK consumer will hardly feel a ripple of inconvenience given the supply is global you do go one a bit about how farmers (I suspect you mean English farmers ?) are basically up to “normal” no good which is a bit unfair.
It is only English farmers who have seen their support cut completely with the end of the Basic Farm Payment Scheme and subsequently the withdrawal of the SFI scheme; Scottish farmers still receive an area based payment under the Rural Support Plan as do Welsh farmers under the SFS scheme and N Ireland farmers under FSP scheme. As to why the Government decided to strip only English farms of all support but leave the devolved administrations to there own plans is unclear but political expediency clearly played a role.
The English SFI environmental scheme has been appalling with massive overpayments of up to £635/ha for some whole farm options and after what was clearly going to be a massive over subscription occurred the scheme was pulled leaving a lucky few financially secure with an income stream and those unfortunate enough to be applying after the scheme prematurely ended with nothing. Its fine to say, as you do, public money for public good but you have to have some level of competence in the administration and planning of these support options and there was none. Quite what part those “stakeholders” who were NGO’s played in this is unknown but I suspect farmer stakeholders were thin on the ground in this.
Your chart of wheat prices through out your life time ranks up with the best in terms of misleading the reader. You do admit that it might not include inflation and given that it starts in the 1960’s this might be an issue ? Wheat was at £20/tn in 1960 which today is the equivalent of £580/tn. Today even with the drought in Europe and missing at least 23 million tons of EU and FSU production as a prediction on the 2026 harvest wheat trades at only a third of this value at £200 a ton. In 1960 fertiliser cost £10/tn so on the same basis it should be £290/tn in fact it is £500 per tn and the same levels of cost inflation apply across all farm inputs from fuel, labour, crop crop protection products and machinery and so on.
In conclusion I would suggest that you might be suffering from the urban myth that farmers are always moaning about something but I can assure you its bad now, as bad as I’ve ever seen it financially. The last thing needed was a crippling drought again (third bad year now). Many farmers are seriously considering not planting large areas of cropping for 2027.
Hi Julian – agriculture policy is a devolved matter and therefore the Government didn’t decide to treat the four nations differently, it acted to implement a policy in England because that’s where it could. And as I remember it, it was a policy that farmers thought would work well for them. There was the usual macho talk from English farmers that they are the best in the world and could stand on their own two feet but that didn’t last long.
Yes, I agree that the SFI scheme wasn’t done well, even with a farmer in Defra over a long period either as Ag Minister or SoS – you remember George Eustice don’t you? It seems that Defra can’t organise a rowdy party when the drinks are free but that doesn’t only apply to farming. Water quality, raptor persecution and many many others. Is it the civil servants perhaps?
Nice try to blame the NGOs! Maybe, but that would be very unusual during the years of Tory misrule, wouldn’t it? Who got their way on Badgers – the farmers! On grouse moor management (legal and illegal) – the grousers!
I didn’t admit that the 68/yr chart was not inflation proofed – I pointed it out. It also doesn’t show the wheat yields rise over that period. Maybe I shd’t have included it but it is interesting. Having gone off on one on that graph you ignore the one showing higher prices now than last year. What do you think of that?
The feedback I have had is that many many arable farmers are doing fine this year with harvest completed early, reduced yields but lower drying costs and some with higher quality grains. Farmers look a bit sheepish when asked where the food shortages are going to be.
Anyway, thank you for your comment. Nice to hear from you.
Hi Mark, thanks for the reply , I’ve retired to the Scottish borders and am quite relieved to be out of main stream farming now. Still have an interest in the contracting side in Essex so I’m not totally removed from the industry yet. I’m loving the area up here and I’m constantly surprised by how much wildlife manages to coexist up here with modern farming compared to down South where we seem to have lost most of it. We have Ospreys flying over the garden and Grey Partridge everywhere (not English !) which is a joy. All best J.
Thank you Les Wallace for a comment from inside the industry.
Separately: can anyone explain why, as they produce a thing everyone needs all the time (food), farmers need subsidies from the food buyers’ taxes?