Brexit means?

Mark 13 Comments

Tomorrow our Prime Minister will set out her thoughts on what Brexit means – presumably beyond ‘Brexit means Brexit’.

Are you fed up with Brexit already? Well, there are years and years to go so you’d better get used to it.

She is expected to say we are heading for a ‘hard Brexit’ (according to the Telegraph, Evening Standard). At least we can expect the PM (TM the PM) not to confuse us all quite as much as Jeremy Corbyn did last week – what is Labour’s position on Brexit? On anything?

She may say (or May may say) that we may leave the single market, the customs union and regain control of immigration and if I were her, I’d say ‘I didn’t argue for this shabby deal but you lot voted for it and now you are going to have it in spades’ but she probably won’t be quite as clear as that.

I’d be surprised if TM the PM mentions the environment or farming but we’ll see. If she mentions farming I bet it will be along the lines of ‘protecting the interests of our wonderful farmers’ which, if she does, will show that she hasn’t really been thinking about it at all.  The interests of farmers and the interests of taxpayers are not exactly the same. And the interests of farmers and the interests of consumers are not the same either.  And TM the PM is PM for all of us…

After tomorrow, and the increase in clarity which it is supposed to bring, there will be a majority of the UK population which is against Brexit – either because they didn’t want it to happen or because they did want it to happen but didn’t want it to happen like this. That’ll be interesting.  What will we do then?

Have any readers of this blog changed their minds since 23 June? If so, from which option to which option?

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13 Replies to “Brexit means?”

  1. Not exactly changed my mind, but as someone who was on the losing side I think that the will of the majority, however ill advised, has to be respected. I don’t think there is any doubt that immigration was a, if not *the*, major factor in why many people voted Leave, and that most of them voted to leave because they felt it was the right thing to do. I’m quite sure that the large majority of Leavers didn’t vote leave for nasty xenophobic reasons either – the UK has its problems and its vocally extreme politics but I don’t believe that anything like 52% of British people are fascists. (and if you do believe that it’s that bad then why are you still bothering?)

    In fact I don’t think most people on either side did pure a economic cost benefit analysis before voting. Most voted from the heart whichever way they voted. I know I did.

    So if we’re to be outside the area of free movement of labour, and thus meet perhaps the biggest single demand of the winning campaign, hard Brexit is the logical end point. To be inside the single market, and hence retain free movement, pay fees, and have no influence over policy would be the worst of all outcomes and would provoke a strong backlash from betrayed leavers. I can’t think of anything that would encourage the extremists trouble makers amongst them more than that.

    The whole fiasco is an object lesson on being careful what you wish for. We environmentalists must fight our corner in the aftermath, but at least the Government can no longer blame the EU if they choose not to change the agricultural status quo.

    I’m a democract before I’m a europhile – and as Churchill said, democracy is the worst of all political systems apart from all the other ones we’ve tried.

    1. Well said.

      I don’t think those who are advocating that the UK adopts a Norwegian / Swiss type model of Single Market access have fully thought through the long-term consequences, which in my opinion could be catastrophic. As you rightly allude – it could easily become a right-wing demagogues charter.

      I voted and actively campaigned to Remain, but I know plenty of people who voted Leave and those who sight xenophobia as the main driving force behind Brexit badly misjudge the situation. Ignorance, naivity, excessive wishful-thinking, political disaffection and discontentment with modern life were/are much bigger factors than xenophobia.
      To site xenophobia is to completely overlook just how unfair and unequal our society has become and just how let-down and dissenfranchised a large proportion of Labours traditional northern power-base is feeling. To be honest I really can’t see a way back for Labour, I think the upcoming by-elections in Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent will be disastrous for the party.

  3. I voted remain, haven’t changed my mind and with such a tight margin don’t go with the ‘will of the (lied to) majority. Racist nationalism is the first refuge of populist politicians and what scares me are the parallels with politics in the 1930s – politicians seem all too keen to make references to Nazi Germany whilst pursuing exactly the same agendas as the Nazis – and no one should be complacent enough to believe it can’t happen again – that is what at its heart the EU is all about.

    Are there any upsides ? If there are they’ll be swept away by economic decline – reform of land management post CAP is a real, positive prospect – but what chance it being carried through in the right way ? Iain Duncan-Smith was very quick to retract t6he promises to the NHS, using farming as one of the things that would demand money – and who would grudge the deserving rich (through his wife he is a £150,00 pa CAP beneficiary) over the sick and feckless poor ?

  4. I’m proud to have voted Remain and I haven’t changed my mind but I do wonder if free movement of people – fine liberal principle thought it is – can be really sustainable given current levels of inequality across Europe. This is a separate issue to the migration crisis prompted by the many humanitarian tragedies in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan etc., neither do I seek to blame the EU or migrants from Eastern Europe who have arrived on these shores to essentially fill skills shortages or gaps in the labour market etc. etc. Just that pragmatically mass movement of labour will always cause problems in disadvantaged communities.

    I definitely haven’t changed my mind that referenda are a thoroughly stupid idea – much as the leavers shout about the will of the people the Brexit vote is an affront to parliamentary democracy. No political party with a manifesto commitment to leaving the EU has ever secured a majority – the last to try were Labour under future Commissioner Kinnock in 1987 I believe, where they barely scraped 30% of the vote if I remember rightly (cue Mrs Thatcher’s third term).

    This one will continue cause chaos for years to come. My guess is that eventually the economic threats and opportunities will balance each other out and we’ll be little better or worse off than we were before (ie an economy built on sand that continues to trash the environment and throws many thousands or even millions out of work at the first hint of recession). What will be a real drag will be the years spent disentangling ourselves from current arrangements, a massive and unwelcome distraction from much more important things we should be grappling with.

    So for every opportunity (like the possibility of a better system of support for agriculture than the CAP) there will be many threats (achieving a level of environmental protection as good as that offered by the EU Nature Directives) and other areas where we’ll have to run like bloody mad to stay still. Then there is no longer having access to the European Court – an important check and balance in our unwritten constitution to stop governments elected on small shares of the popular vote may feel emboldened to act with impunity in ignoring the law or pursuing bad policy. This might lead to the further politicization of our Supreme Court, the furore around the Gina Miller case hardly bodes well.

    It would have been so much better to have stayed in and built alliances with other like minded member states would it not?

    1. For me you have explained the issues very well, Watching with Interest.

      I haven’t changed my thinking that leaving the EU is an act of lunacy.

      Born in the middle of the war, I still think this union of nations – of families – is a great European Project and I feel really sad that we’re rejecting it.

      As for this clueless and uncaring government matching the EU Nature Directives – I cannot see that happening.

  5. Not changed my mind to remain and not changed my mind about how many people I know prove to be more racist & xenophobic than they say they are.
    Brexit means that whatever happens, the incumbent PM will know that she can blame the well-informed UK electorate when the wheels start to come off. It was their wish after all yet it will probably prove difficult to find those informed voters taking responsibility for the choice they made since it seems they are fully intent in blaming foreigners for most things these days.

  6. still can`t get my head around the Irish dilemma……..if we don`t have a hard border between the Republic and NI, what`s to stop Euros piling in on 30euro deals to Dublin and then just hopscotching into NI, which, last time I looked is part of the UK…..as for the environment, you have a fox hunt supporting Home Secretary, not looking good,not good at all……….

  7. I voted leave & haven’t changed my mind. I did not want to join the Common Market in the 70’s and voted against in the 70’s referendum.

    For me leaving the EU has damn all about immigration or any other claptrap. For me it has and always will be about democracy or rather the lack of it.

    I know I’m in the minority with regard to leaving the EU among the readers of Mark’s blog, so be it. The good thing is I’m on side of 99% of most of the subjects that Mark writes about.

    It’s 0710 hrs and so for me it is off in the car and into the mountains for a good day watching ptarmigan and to hell with TM’s speech and all that.

  8. Hi Mark,

    I did thanks, and yesterday I was out looking for Golden Eagles and it really lifted my spirits watching a Goldie ridge soaring.

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