Although political predictions have been very much awry in recent years I think it is almost certain that the Lib Dems will win back the Brecon and Radnorshire seat in tomorrow’s by election. The seat has often been held by the Liberals and looks destined to go back to them this week.
Chris Davies the former sitting MP whose recall prompted this by-election spoke in favour of driven grouse shooting, and was very rude about me, in the infamous Westminster Hall debate in 2016.
Mr Davies doesn’t seem to be campaigning hard – he hasn’t even turned up to a couple of husting sthat have been held.
If you had a bet on a Lib Dem victory today, and if they win tomorrow, then you could make c6% profit in a single day on Betfair. My money was down a while ago and at considerably better odds than that. So, for various reasons I am hoping for a Lib Dem victory. Boris’s majority, such as it is, will fall even further and with a clearly anti-Brexit new MP. but let’s see what Friday’s news delivers.
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The seat was held by Liberal Democrats 1997-2015
There is a Remain Alliance between Green Party Plaid Cymru Renew Change UK in support.
The constituency is largest in England & Wales so has 2 campaign offices
I don’t bet instead I have given support by going to Brecon for 3 days to deliver leaflets & help in office to help you win your bet Mark
Stayed in Nearby farm with breeding House Martins Swallows & screaming swifts. Both villages I delivered in had screaming swifts & more hirundines than I see breeding locally Forgot House Sparrows present & more common than near me in Herts
Dipper on river in Brecon was another bonus
My 3 days had glorious weather as well
Joan
That sounds like perfect canvassing! Great to see the Remain Alliance in action to support Mark’s investment. Let’s hope they’ll do the same for the Green Party at the next opportunity.
It was Richard especially as when I wrote the above I had only seen 1 swift over my house this year but have now seen my 2nd
Let’s hope you are right Mark, and that the Lib Dem’s win with a really big swing in the votes ( I think a big swing is important). We do need something to lift the absolute gloom being imposed by this current clique and the continuing criminality on grouse moors.