Election night opportunity?

Mark 5 Comments

I’ll be at home that evening; whether celebrating or bursting into tears, it will be best done in private.

Ralph Underhill hopes to be back soon in his regular Saturday morning slot.

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5 Replies to “Election night opportunity?”

    1. Well Peter Jones lets hope your wrong. Brilliant article in The Telegraph today by Kate Hoey read and take note. Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott to name just three running this country terrifies me and everyone I know. I think you and Mark are going to need a large box of tissues that night to mop up all your tears.

  2. The morning after the election we may have a new gubmint and it will be led by a buffoon, an anti-semite or a whiny pain in the arse, whomsoever wins. But we lose.

    1. It seems to have become an established fact that Corbyn is an anti Semite, despite the absence of any supporting evidence, and despite people like Michael Rosen, Miriam Margolyes and John Bercow who have all known him for decades stating categorically that it is untrue.

      It is unfortunate that political discourse in this country has reached such a nadir that people have stooped to weaponising anti Semitism to further their political objectives.

  3. The likelihood of any party achieving an outright majority is low, in my opinion. If the last three years has taught us anything, it is the consistent division that the Brexit Referendum has implemented. I don’t think anything substantial has changed to move a single cohort in a defined direction that would result in a single party achieving a substantial majority.

    A realistic outcome in my opinion is either a tiny majority for the Conservatives, ie by one or possibly two seats; or more likely, a hung Parliament with Tories forming the largest party.

    What might be more interesting will be the individual stories. There is, in my opinion, a real likelihood of Jo Swinson (East Dumbartonshire) losing her seat to the SNP; and possibly even more likely, and certainly feasible, Boris Johnson losing his to Labour. That would be the irony if Jeremy Corbyn survives as the only major party leader.

    And if we have anything other than a Conservative majority, Brexit will be over in my view. A lingering death, but nevertheless, a folly that should never be repeated unless there is a supermajority required (66%) and it is legally binding.

    If one considers the full Parliamentary term, then the Conservatives will need a substantial majority (eg 20+) to deliver whatever they actually wish to do. I cannot see them achieving a substantial majority, so even if they do scrape a majority, we’d be back in Parliamentary deadlock within a few/ several months. We’d have left the EU, but we’d then be in a situation of being deadlocked with no deal, and no prospect of a deal. This outcome would be catastrophic for the North-East of England.

    Which leads me to my final points. The electorate here will seemingly determine the outcome of the Election, and the constuencies in Sunderland and Newcastle typically do so early, ie within an hour or so of polls closing. So, possibly bell-weathers of what the overall outcome will look like. If the Conservatives do well here then may be they will defy my commentary here. Status quo (in terms of MP), well, may be I am in the ballpark.

    So I think we will wake up on Friday the 13th with Brexit determined (departure or not) but no clearer medium to long term vision or destination. Most likely MPs, many new, will return to Westminster to discover the numbers/ the maths, more or less as they were on the 5th November 2019.

    So, who’s up for a General Election in 2020?

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