Betting confidence in a Tory majority on 13 December is waning. A week ago the Betfair odds on a Conservative majority were around 4/6 whereas now they are a tad below Even money. That still means that it looks (to the market) as though it’s a coin-toss between a Conservative majority and a hung parliament (almost certainly with the Conservatives having the most seats) but the momentum is currently slipping away from the Conservatives.
Now, whilst formerly very reliable guides to outcomes, over recent years the political betting markets have been as hopeless as opinion polls at signalling outcomes, but they still give some sort of insight into what is happening.
This general election will be won and lost in a relatively small number (fewer than 100) of seats (of which mine in Corby is probably one). National polls don’t tell us too much about those seats and even the YouGov poll which has larger samples and classier data collection is only a very rough guide to what those individual constituencies will do.
My preferrred outcome is now definitely a hung parliament where Labour, LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Northern Ireland parties, Independents and Greens have to construct some sort of way forward.
Such a messy outcome would probably lead to the types of policy I would prefer – left-leaning on social issues, support for education and the NHS, a strong response to climate change, better wildlife protection and either a softer Brexit after a third referendum (1975 and 2016 were the others) or even getting Brexit undone. I’m not yet betting on it happening though – but maybe I should while the odds are still quite inviting.
I shall be voting for Beth Miller here in Corby in order to do my bit to prevent the Conservative candidate being returned (but also because I think Beth would be a very good MP).
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Mark et al.
This election is exciting isn’t it! Isn’t it?
There would be some continuation of normality if Boris loses the General Election (after losing his Parliamentary majority, losing 8 votes on the bounce, losing in the Supreme Court). He might even lose his seat!
But I think it is too difficult to call. Even looking at the Polls is somewhat pointless as, and I am not sure on this, but I think because the voting behaviour will in some constituencies where it is marginal, voters may tactically vote for who is typically the second-placed candidate that is not a Conservative and I am not sure the national polls reflect this. And then there is Brexit. And possibly the weather. And how the latter may influence the can’t be bovvereds, or the can be bothered, but it is too wet out. Predicted gains and losses may literally alter depending on whether it is raining in Rainham, drizzling in Drylston, or snowing in Snowdonia.
What I think can be said is that Boris has to win an outright majority for Brexit definitely to happen on 31st January 2020. Any other scenario and I think Brexit will definitely (probably) be delayed until, well, until the future.
Oh, and how much more air time will Boris get between now and 11th December? Hopefully lots and lots, as I think the more he is on the TV, radio or a small business near you, the worse it is for them.
But, and this is the interesting but, what happens if the Tories are the largest party, but cannot form a Government? Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green coalition? Caroline Lucas as Secretary of State for Environment? Driven Grouse Shooting banned by Easter 2020?
The future of our country is possibly in the hands of less than a few 10,000 individuals scattered across the UK. Nonr of whom know that it will be them that does it.
It’s exciting isn’t it? It could be you!
A hung parliament is the best we can hope for and the only realistic way to stop Brexit (or leave in a democratic way) by forcing another referendum, either on Johnson’s deal or a Corbyn deal. Unfortunately, for many people – including me – Corbyn is as objectionable as Johnson. In a very safe Tory seat I don’t have a moral dilemma and will vote Lib Dem or Green to boost the overall number of votes cast for remain parties. If I had the chance to help engineer a hung parliament by voting Labour or Tory, I would be agonising over what to do. A sorry mess.
I disagree that Corbyn and Johnson are equally obectionable. Corbyn has policies which aim to right wrongs whereas Johnson has policies that will multiply the wrongs.
Bob,
I agree with you that Jeremy Corbyn is not exactly easy to vote for, but, and this is a consequence of our voting system, I have personally taken the view that the UK would be better off with Corbyn than Boris Johnson at the helm. Partly because other senior Labour MPs are collectively (in my opinion) more thoughtful and kinder than those who surround Boris.
The dilemma I would have had in a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives, would have been if Rory Stewart had won the Conservative leadership race. I may well have found myself contemplating voting Tory for the first time ever, subject of course to the policies and who was in his team (Cabinet).
Equally relevant is if Corbyn (had) stepped down (even now?) as I think if, for example, Keir Starmer became (interim) leader, Labour would romp home.
And finally, that bacon sandwich. If only Ed Miliband had not eaten that bacon sandwich, or done so in private, I think we would all have avoided the last four years of chaos, uncertainty and gloom. Possibly one of the better Prime Ministers we never had.
Thanks Richard. If only Ed hadn’t stood against David!
I would certainly like to think that we’ve reached peak Tory. If we have it’s because of their lack of substance – they have not thought it necessary actually to campaign on the merits. They have supposed that slogans are better than policies, that lies are better than the truth (because they attract more attention), and that they don’t really need to debate. It’s an approach that one might have feared would work, and it might yet, but it increasingly seems it might not. Not because in this post-modern social media dominated world it could not have, but rather because the very shallowness of it deprives it of legs. People are already bored: what new have the Tories to offer? A sudden outbreak of substance seems unlikely: historically they have never been very good at that and this lot just don’t have it in the first place, it’s not just Cummings. Meanwhile Corbyn plods on, but because there is thought-through policy behind it people start to pay attention.
So in a funny way this is a very traditional election, even if more sharply drawn. It’s ‘steady as you go’ versus ‘we need change’, with Brexit not exactly invisible, but not the key issue that the Tories expected. I think I’d bet on the ‘change’ message winning because of where we are: austerity, so many social and social cohesion indicators being in a bad place, increased activism amongst the young, and new awareness of the need for change on the environment.
Mind you, I was brought up in the Midlands, and I really worry about the ‘red wall’ holding.
Mark
Labour will win without a majority and get SNP on side
I’m not a betting man myself ( having seen my father waste time and money backing slow horses) but remember someone who always put a small bet on the candidate that they didn’t want to win.
Then if their favoured candidate won they would lose the bet but wouldn’t care and if they lost they would win the bet which would soften the blow.
I have a growing nagging feeling of dread, just like I did before the referendum. I think the Tories are going to win, I think there are some very challenging times ahead. Meantime the Tories are learning from Trump how to win and keep winning , which will leave us with even more division and hate.
Labour has to lose badly enough to get rid of Corbyn and find someone less toxic to lead them before the Tories face any real challenge, however awful they are.
Meanwhile we’re running out of time.
Fully agree jbc. Labour with Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott will be a disaster for the Country. All this nationalisation and freebies for everyone is going to cost. Companies will move overseas (already happening), tax revenues will drop, interest rates will inrease rapidly and unemployment will go through the roof. Those of us that are in our 60s will remember similar times before. If David Miliband hadn’t been ousted by the left wing we may have already had a decent Labour Government. But with the current Shadow Cabinet we are looking at total disaster with a Labour win.
And for those that don’t want Brexit to happen, I thought we had a referendum on Brexit? I voted to stay in however I am able to accept the result – why can’t others?
Staying in the EU is not necessarily a good thing for our Biodiversity – look at France / Italy / Malta / Cyprus – they all ignore the guidance just like our shooting estates.
Totally disagree, We need a Labour win and a Blair type Labour watered down tory party is something we need like a hole in the head. We need those nationalisations to make a fairer economy that will actually do something about both unfairness and climate change. They are after all just taking back into public ownership that which previous Tory governments have stolen from us. A Johnson government is the disaster that will happen if the Tories are re-elected, government by a tiny public school elite for the already rich as they have always done, no real tackling of climate change and selling the NHS to the highest bidder.
Paul you do have a chip on your shoulder! Take a chill pill and calm down. Next week is going to be a huge disappointment for you but a big relief for most sensible level headed people who have worked hard all their lives and want to keep what they have earned.
Judith I do not have a chip on my shoulder or anywhere else, I am just a life long socialist and proud of it. Apart from that I think it long past time that politics was about more than self interest and greed. I want a government that makes the haves pay there fair share, something which up to now has almost never happened in the UK. I also think that we need to tackle climate change something the tories will never do as it will interfere with profit. If Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the answer it was the wrong bloody question.
Complacency is never a virtue and especially not now. Neither is mistaking passion for having a chip on the shoulder.
Given that you have so lowered the tone, perhaps I could ask you to redress that by enquiring after your own proposals (apart from keeping what you earn, that is). Climate change? Or to use the modern political currency, how many trees? Reversing growth in inequality? Managing the devastating consequences of corporate amorality? You owe us some kind of seriousness in your answer.
Judith are you saying that somehow the services that are vital for the economy and for society as a whole should be funded by some magic money tree?
If you are not a rich person, then a Johnson government will be a disaster for you. If you are rich person a Johnson government could still be a disaster for you and certainly will for the country as a whole.
Finally I take it your entirely happy for the leader of the UK to be someone who is a proven lair, without principles, lacks attention to detail, has dubious decision making skills and is prepared to do anything and say anything as long as it suits his personal ambition?
If that is the case we truly have reached peak stupidity then.
Paul, I think you’re missing my point. I didn’t say I wanted a Tory victory, I said I think that’s what we’ll get. And whether you like Corbyn or not, its undeniable that he’s a very divisive figure. Maybe enough people will hold their noses and vote for him anyway, but I doubt it. True believers like you will not be enough to keep the Tories out if they don’t.
Agreed, I’m not one of his greatest fans either I think that whilst I like the policies I also think he has been a poor leader. However I don’t want the Labour Party to go back to the Tory-lite of Blair.
Alan,
I owe you nothing. You know nothing about me, who I am or what I do.
However, I do believe in true work values both as an employer and employee and I stick by my previous comment those who have worked hard all their lives deserve to hold on to everything that they have achieved for themselves and their family. This has absolutely nothing to with greed just the correct values and morals.
There is no room in this country for socialism or social views and I make no apology for saying that.
It terrifies me and everybody I know that potentially Mr. Corbyn may hold the keys to No. 10 next week but I also think and believe that this is going to be very unlikely.
We will all know in eight days time.
Judith you and I are obviously very different, I feel about a Johnson government as you do about one led by Jeremy Corbyn. However I will point out to you that it was the socialism of Nye Bevan in the past that gave us the NHS. Socialism is also largely responsible for all of the Welfare State. Would you rather we went back to the days of the workhouse and health care only for the rich?
If you believe in correct values and morals, then you won’t be voting for a party led Johnson who demonstrates neither of these will you? If you do then the word hypocrisy springs to mind!
I’ve been waiting in vain for Judith to flesh out her comments.
As you say, jbc, Corbyn is a divisive figure but I’m not sure it’s his fault. First the Blairites weren’t happy, forgetting where Tony Blair had led us, then when he became a serious contender after 2017 the media took over the assault. He is an exemplary leader, having values and principles and not reacting to the abuse he receives. Let’s not forget the state of politics in the 2000s; you couldn’t slip a cigarette paper between New Labour and the Conservatives. This continuing under David Miliband is a pipe dream.
” … I take it your entirely happy for the leader of the UK to be someone who is a proven lair, without principles, lacks attention to detail, has dubious decision making skills and is prepared to do anything and say anything as long as it suits his personal ambition?”
I just know I am going to be disappointed if enough people vote for such a Scheisskopf, whomsoever it is.