!["Global European Union" by S. Solberg J. - [1]. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_European_Union.svg#/media/File:Global_European_Union.svg](https://markavery.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global_European_Union.svg_.png)
And David Cameron wants me to be fobbed off too. He’s really stuck if he gets a minor change in EU policy and then we all say it’s not good enough, because the PM clearly wants us to stay in the EU – you see, he can be right about some things.
Cameron is giving an object lesson in how deterrence doesn’t work unless your heart is in it. Just as we’d be better off not spending £100bn on Trident if we aren’t going to use it, and we aren’t even going to pretend that we would use it, then there’s no point pretending that we’ll leave the EU if there aren’t lots of concessions if we won’t. And we won’t. In fact, the whole ‘negotiation’ process is a complete and utter waste of time because we’ve all made our minds up already.
There is no way that either UKIP or Mark Avery are going to change their minds on the EU, although I am more likely to do so than Nigel Farage. So if we do leave the EU it won’t be on the basis of concessions – it will be on the basis of whether we want to turn inwards or be part of the real world.
And we really shouldn’t spend £100bn on a weapon that we believe that no past or present or future UK Prime Minister would use either as first strike or in retaliation. It’s a pretty expensive posing pouch – and we don’t need it.
In the comment about the fact that Jeremy Corbyn can’t be a real man if he won’t rather pointlessly incinerate thousands of foreigners if we have already been incinerated (by the way – what would be the position of Jesus on this tricky moral dilemma do you think?) we spend too little time wondering what we might rather do with £100bn. Give it to the RSPB, Wildlife Trusts, Butterfly Conservation and Buglife and we can rest assured that many environmental problems will be much reduced. Let’s do that then. I’d rather use the money to fight on the side of wildlife in a real battle than nuke some innocent civilians in a conflict that may never happen.
Which would you rather do?
![By National Nuclear Security Administration / Nevada Site Office [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons](https://markavery.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/449px-NNSA-NSO-2191.jpg)
Well said Mark..although despite being an ardent wildlife conservationist I would like to see some of those billions spent on human welfare problems too!
If the UK does leave the EU, there’s a very high probability that this will not accord with the overwhelming wishes of the Scots. Independence for Scotland and the breakup of the UK is almost certain to follow the leaving of Europe, with Scotland rejoining the EU asap. Left behind in a Tory fiefdom I wouldn’t be surprised if Wales then started looking more seriously at independence too. I would if I were Welsh. (I don’t know enough about about NI politics to comment about the view there).
I like living in the UK and I don’t want to live in a Little England that would become a one party Tory state. The one party SNP state north of the border might not wish to co-operate with its neighbour, and esp if the border is an EU one they might find it difficult to do so even where they wished to. Quite apart from the social and economic dislocation within these isles, one party states, irrespective of one’s politics, are bad news even for that one party.
I’m not sure why this isn’t a more explicit part of the discussion of a UK exit, but I see it as being one of the most undesirable outcomes for everyone.
Well I want the same rights as the Scots.
I want a vote on the right of England to say goodbye to the Scots and lets see how they manage without all the benefits handed out to them to keep them happy.
Let them collect their own taxes and share that small pot out and see how little it provides.
Oh yes I actually like the Scots but am fed up with them knowing a lot of whinging and threats to go separate will get them even more benefits denied to all the English population
Both main parties in NI are anti-EU; though Sinn Fein would like an all Ireland republic to leave it and the Democratic Unionist Party all of the UK to leave it!
Jbc is right that the SNP would (fairly I think) seize on UK withdrawal from the EU to justify a second referendum. Given Cameron’s behaviour after the first, there is every chance that the Scots would vote narrowly to leave the UK and seek eventual readmittance to the EU. Some nations with restive minorities, such as Spain, might want to block Scotland’s entry to the EU, but its credentials as a European nation would be irrefutable.
What happens then in Wales is hard to say. Wales is in a very different place to Scotland. Our fossil fuels were extracted and burnt long ago. We are relatively poor and suffer more ill health than much of England. Despite the trappings of nationhood – language, anthem and flag – Wales would lack the confidence to go it alone. Plaid Cymru doesn’t have the leadership and governing experience of the SNP.
Having said that, devolution is now irreversible in Wales, and the Welsh would look to the Senedd to insulate themselves from the excesses of a rampant Tory England, with more devolution. Give it a generation, and who knows? As the late John Davies said, maybe “the nation in its fullness is yet to be”.
In Northern Ireland, the peace process is predicated on a delicate balance of cross-border arrangements that assume both the UK and the Republic are in the EU. If that breaks down, egged on by the Tory right’s fellow travellers in the DUP, the result could be catastrophic.
As for England, with constituency boundaries changed and the Labour Party bankrupted by Tory legislation on unions, the effective one party state that Jbc predicts could come about. A sizeable English progressive voting block would become increasingly restive as it sees it is locked out of power, even if it wins the overall popular vote in elections. An England with a permanent right of centre government that many would regard as illegitimate would become a very nasty place.
Jbc – I agree – people in Britain really haven’t understood the precipice they are standing on, even those with a 1950s fantasy who long for a Brexit. The ‘in’ camp has to win this referendum, and win it comprehensively. The alternative doesn’t bear thinking about.
A somewhat depressing analysis but it’s hard to disagree with it.
Given the choice (which I won’t be) between Trident and wildlife/human suffering, I’m on wildlife’s side every time.
It was the Labour Government in 1947 that in secret decided on the commitment to a Nuclear Arms Programme.Bevin the foreign Secretary was determined that Britain must have the bomb.
Hey, dodgy duo D&G & Co. have a 24% mandate, community consultation ha, they jest?
As for democracy, bring on radical reform & start in the Westminster Palace?
Isn’t it interesting that all leaders eventually decide to press buttons, remember the fuss when Blair did & now we can’t get the report (come on Dave pull the metaphorical out) but look …. now they’re wanting to …. so is that why etc. etc.
Better things to spend money on for sure ….
This referendum is Dave’s Big Negotiated Europe vs No Europe, right?
I’m not necessarily keen on either of those options, especially if DBNE means a weakening of wildlife directives. What about an option for the status quo?
The only silver lining in all this is that the right is going to indulge in some pretty spectacular internecine strife, something the other parties are going to have to try and exploit.
“incinerate thousands of foreigners”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs