Election watch (21) – take two leaders

A guy called Boris Johnson is the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Recent history:

2010 General election Won by John Randall, Conservative Majority 11,216 votes

2015 General election Won by Boris Johnson, Conservative Majority 10,695 votes

2017 General election Won by Boris Johnson, Conservative Majority 5,034 votes

A guy called Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour candidate for Islington North. Recent history:

2010 General election Won by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Majority 12,401 votes

2015 General election Won by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Majority 21,194 votes

2017 General election Won by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Majority 33,215 votes

Although there is much talk of the poisonous Dominic Raab’s seat, Esher and Sutton, being vulnerable to the LibDems (fingers crossed) there certainly seems more reason to imagine that the good people of Uxbridge, particularly all those Brunel University students who have registered to vote, might be getting tired of Boris the Liar.

What a night it would be if Boris lost his seat…

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10 Replies to “Election watch (21) – take two leaders”

  1. Mark

    I think there is a very reasonable chance of Boris Johnson losing his seat, but, and this is not an unreasonable but, it will depend on whether Brunel University’s students are (a) are still in the constituency on the 12th (University terms end on the 13th); and (b) they actually vote. If they they turn out in above average numbers then I think Boris might make the headlines, but not for the reasons he is hoping for.

    From what I understand, several Conservative seats in remain constituencies are vulnerable, and not just Dominic Raab’s. Ian Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Zac Goldsmith’s are all vulnerable. I think at least one will lose their seat.

    And here is an interesting statistic. On only one occasion has a Secretary of State lost their seat and the Government they represented won the election, that being Chris Patten (Bath) in 1992. So, if Dominic Raab and another SoS (or PM), loses, history does not look favourably. Of course, normally, Ministers have safe seats, hence why it is rare for them to lose but the Government win. But, the June 2016 Referendum created a tumultuous schism in British politics, so who knows.

    I for one think that the first seats declaring, normally Houghton & Sunderland South and Newcastle Central are worth paying more than casual attention to. They’re in the so called Red Wall, so if Labour’s vote share declines, we’ll…. If it increases, hmmmm.

    I think it will be a very tight result.

    R.

    1. Richard – thank you. Those Brunel students, some of them, might also have postal votes. Let’s just imagine a pile of (presumably unopened) non-Boris votes sitting somewhere but already cast. Wishful thinking?

      I don’t know where postal votes are kept until the poll closes. I’ll look it up.

      1. Mark

        Students can register at their university address, and their home (parents typically) address, but only vote in one constituency – though how this is policed is beyond me. I would anticipate that postal votes represent a small percentage of votes cast. Thus, whilst the student vote may be more difficult to model due to potentially greater proportion of postal votes in this cohort, in my mind, I think the real effect will be those who walk in to a voting booth. And typically, fewer under 30s do, compared to the over 55s.

        As to where postal votes are secured, I believe it is in the Russian embassy, who kindly offered to do this for a very small fee (joke).

  2. Boris losing his seat would rank up there with with 1997 when Messrs Portillo and Mellor lost their seats.

    But I’m pretty though that Johnson and his cabal have given this serious consideration and have a contingency plan in place. Johnson isn’t one for convention and judging from the contempt he has shown to Parliament thus far would probably enjoy being Prime Minister without taking a seat in the commons – for a short while at least. Not having to bother with PMQ’s for a while would free him to spend more time brown-nosing his sensei from across the pond.

    I’m pretty sure they will have already identified a safe Tory seat where in the incumbent will be persuaded to stand down on the grounds of ill-health etc etc. No doubt the promise of a life peerage in the New Years Honours list will soften the blow, as well as the opportunity to devote more time to snouting in the trough of directorships.

    1. Nope. Constitutionally, it is the individual who, in the Monarch’s opinion (as advised) can command the majority of the House. Need not be a party leader or an MP. And indeed, prior to 1902, not unusual for it to be a member of the Lords.

      So, in theory, Boris could lose his seat, and if it is a hung Parliament with Tories the largest party, he retains position as PM. Whether this is tenable is another matter. But it is a not unrealistic outcome.

      He may of course seek to regain entry to Parliament in a by-election, triggered by a loyal Tory MP taking a sinecure (effectively resigning).

  3. This is as bad as waiting for Chrimbo when you were five. I just want it to be Friday 13th so I know which wax effigy to stick pins in until next time.

  4. There are more and more signs that history is about to reverse itself with Britain becoming an economic colony of what was once its colony – the USA – and for the same reasons, a failure of democracy.

    And linked to that, its increasingly clear that for all the fine talk about democracy around the disastrous Brexit vote, Boris really sees himself more as a dictator with growing signs of the sorts of behaviour we criticise in countries like Hungary – an already proven willingness to push the rules of our unwritten constitution to the limits or beyond, and behind the bumbling bonhomie a vindictiveness in forcing his own way – and stamping on anyone who dares disagree with him – with threats to Channel 4, Ofcom and the BBC because they haven’t fallen in with his wishes like the Express and Mail. His childish ‘get brexit done’ will surely turn out to be cover for even more sinister threats to future freedoms in Britain.

    After all, he feels he has the right because he is a superior person, and the rest of whose ancient Greek might be a little rusty should show proper respect to his genius. Not for nothing does he want to draw parallels with Winston Churchill.

  5. It would really help if everyone (and especially Mark) stopped calling Johnson, Boris (especially if we have to suffer another five years of him). ‘Boris’ is the harmless mumbling buffoon who appears on TV shows and likes to dress up. The lying, shameless, narcissistic, Machiavellian and incompetent leader of the Conservative Party who – to our shame – currently holds the position of British Prime Minister is called Johnson.

    Please, please stop it! He’s not our friend.

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